Risk Rap

Rapping About a World at Risk

An Evening with Ed Altman

Last night I had the distinct pleasure of attending Prmia’s History Making Series lecture that honored Edward Altman at the Deloitte and Touche Conference Center in NYC.

Mr. Altman, The Max l. Heine Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at NYU, was honored for his life long contribution to the study and development of credit risk analysis. His foremost contribution is the development of the Z Score which uses financial ratio benchmarks within an industry segment to determine corporate financial health. He has made many contributions to the study of credit risk, corporate finance and investment analysis of debt securities.

His presentation covered the development of credit risk analysis since his first published work concerning the Z Score in 1968. Mr. Altman was funny, intelligent and very engaging and he raised some dire concerns about the current credit market environment and what it may forebode. To be fair to Mr. Altman, he pretty much stuck with the subject of the development of the discipline of credit risk analysis and like Alan Greenspan went very light on market prognostications.

Some brief highlights of Mr. Altman’s presentation:

Stressed the importance of a healthy corporate credit culture and its neglect has contributed to the current crisis.

Bankruptcy workout and recovery rates will suffer due to current state of credit market.

Lenders need to combine quantitative and qualitative factors to determine loan default probabilities.

Risk managers need a better understanding of the correlation of debt ratings and corporate performance.

Mr. Altman also stated that corporate bond defaults could approach 11% next year and that other securitized asset classes are under severe pressure.

Mr. Altman also opined about the etymological origins of the phrase, “waiting for the other shoe to drop.”

Music Video: The Credit Crunch Song

Risk: credit market, research, economics, corporate finance

Advertisements

October 17, 2008 - Posted by | credit crisis, economics, investments, pop, risk management | , , , , , , , , ,

No comments yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: