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The Profitability of Patriotism: SME Lending

What a  difference a year makes.  A year ago the banks came crawling to Washington begging for a massive capital infusion to avoid an Armageddon of the global financial system.  They sent out an urgent SOS for a $750 billion life preserver of tax payers money to keep the banking system liquid.  Our country’s chief bursar Hank Paulson, designed a craft that would help the banks remain afloat.  Into the market maelstrom Mr. Paulson launched the USS TARP as the vehicle to save our  distressed ship of state.  The TARP would prove itself to be our arc of national economic salvation.  The success of the TARP has allowed the banks to generate profits in one of the most prolific turnarounds since Rocky Balboa’s heartbreaking split decision loss to Apollo Creed.  Some of the banks have repaid the TARP loans to the Fed.  Now as Christmas approaches and this incredible year closes bankers have visions of sugar plum fairies dancing in their heads as they dream about how they will spend this years bonus payments based on record breaking profitability.   President Obama wants the banks to show some love and return the favor by sharing more of their balance sheets by lending money to small and mid-size enterprises (SME).

Yesterday President Obama held a banking summit in Washington DC.  Mr. Obama wanted to use the occasion to shame the “fat cat bankers” to expand their lending activities to SMEs.  A few of the bigger cats were no shows.  They got fogged in at Kennedy Airport.  They called in to attend the summit by phone.    Clearly shame was not the correct motivational devise to encourage the bankers to begin lending to  SMEs.    Perhaps the President should have appealed to the bankers sense of patriotism; because now is the time that all good bankers must come to the aid of their country.  Failing that, perhaps Mr. Obama should make a business case that SME lending  is good for profits.   A vibrant SME sector is a powerful driver for wealth creation and economic recovery.    A beneficial and perhaps unintended consequence of this endeavor is  the economic security and political stability of the nation.  These  are the  worthy concerns of all true patriots and form a common ground where bankers and government can engage the issues that undermine our national security.

The President had a full agenda to cover with the bank executives.  Executive compensation, residential mortgage defaults, TARP repayment plans, bank capitalization and small business lending were some of the key topics.  Mr. Obama was intent on chastising the reprobate bankers about their penny pinching credit policies toward small businesses.  Mr. Obama conveyed to bankers that the country was still confronted with major economic problems.  Now that the banks capital  base has been stabilized with Treasury supplied funding they must get some skin into the game and belly up to the bar by making more loans to SMEs.

According to the FDIC, lending by U.S. banks fell by 2.8 percent in the third quarter.  This is the largest drop since 1984 and the fifth consecutive quarter in which banks have reduced lending.   The decline in lending is a serious  barrier to economic recovery.  Banks reduced the amount of money extended to their customers by $210.4 billion between July and September, cutting back in almost every category, from mortgage lending to funding for corporations.  The TARP was intended to spur new lending and the FDIC observed that the largest recipients of aid  were responsible for a disproportionate share of the decline in lending. FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair stated,   “We need to see banks making more loans to their business customers.”

The withdrawal of $210 billion in credit from the market is a major impediment for economic growth.  The trend to delever credit exposures is a consequence of the credit bubble and is a sign of prudent management of credit risk.  But the reduction of lending activity impedes economic activity and poses barriers to SME capital formation. If the third quarter reduction in credit withdrawal were annualized the amount of capital removed from the credit markets is about 7% of GDP.  This coupled with the declining business revenues due to recession creates a huge headwind for SMEs.  It is believed that 14% of SMEs are in distress and without expanded access to credit, defaults and  bankruptcies will continue to rise.  Massive business failures by SMEs shrinks market opportunities for banks and threatens their financial health  and long term sustainability.

The number one reason why financial institutions turn down a SME for business loans is due to risk assessment. A bank will look at a number of factors to determine how likely a business will or will not be able to return the money it has borrowed.

SME business managers must conduct a thorough risk assessment if it wishes to attract loan capital from banks.  Uncovering the risks and opportunities associated with products and markets, business functions, macroeconomic risks and understanding the critical success factors and measurements that create competitive advantage are cornerstones of effective risk management.  Bankers need assurances that managers understand the market dynamics and risk factors present in their business and how they will be managed to repay credit providers. Bankers need confidence that managers have identified the key initiatives that maintain profitability.  Bankers will gladly extend credit to SMEs that can validate that credit capital is being deployed effectively by astute managers.  Bankers will approve loans when they are confident that SME managers are making prudent capital allocation decisions that are based on a diligent risk/reward assessment.

Sum2 offers products that combine qualitative risk assessment applications with Z-Score quantitative metrics to assess the risk profile and financial health of SMEs.   The Profit|Optimizer calibrates qualitative and quantitative risk scoring  tools; placing a powerful business management tool into the hands of SME  managers.   SME managers  can  demonstrate  to bankers that their requests for credit capital is based on a thorough risk assessment and opportunity discovery exercise and will be effective stewards of loan capital.

On a macro level SME managers must vastly improve their risk management and corporate governance cultures to attract the credit capital of banks.  Using programs like the Profit|Optimizer,  SME’s can position themselves to participate in credit markets with the full faith of friendly bankers.  SME lending is a critical pillar to a sustained economic recovery and stability of our banking system.  Now is the time for all bankers  to come to the aid of their country by opening up credit channels to SMEs to restore  economic growth and the wealth of our  nation.

You Tube Music Video: Bruce Springsteen, Seeger Sessions, Pay Me My Money Down

Risk: banking, credit, SME

December 16, 2009 Posted by | banking, credit, government, Paulson, Profit|Optimizer, recession, risk management, Sum2, sustainability, TARP, Treasury | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Goldman Sachs as Social Entrepreneur

Goldman Sachs’ CEO Lloyd Blankfein and his largest investor, The Wizard of Omaha, Warren Buffett , descended from the mystical heights of Valhalla with some startling news.  They were bearing a new mythical golden ring.  As they held the ring aloft they made a bold proclamation.  They would embark on one of the grandest social entrepreneurial programs of all time by offering some of the rings precious power, about $500 million worth, to capital starved small and mid-size enterprises (SMEs).  The 10,000 Small Businesses Initiative will distribute $100 million per year over the next five years to SMEs through Community Development Financial Institutions.

These lords of commerce have heard the cries from endangered SMEs.  In their infinite wisdom Blankfein and Buffet understand that the real economy needs to resuscitate and incubate the critical SME segment as an absolute prerequisite to a vibrant economic recovery.    The buzz about this news in the marketplace ranged from cynical suspicion at one extreme to puzzled bemusement and  ecstatic aplomb at the other.

What motivated Goldman to announce this initiative is an interesting question.  Was it guilt, greed or a sense of corporate social responsibility?  Some suggest it is a master PR move to counter a growing public perception that Goldman Sachs,  the poster child of government favoritism and bailout largess,  has leveraged its unfair advantage to achieve historic levels of profitability.  Thus enabling management to pay obscene bonuses to company employees.  But capital has no psyche,  and half a billion dollars is a tall bill to underwrite absolution for some phantom form of guilt.  True to its nature, capital always  seeks a place where it will find its greatest return.  Goldman and Buffett are casting some major bread on the receding waters of a distressed economy.  As its foretold in the Good Book , doing God’s work will produce a tenfold return.  If the Bible’s math is correct, thats a lot of manna that will rain down from heaven for the shareholders of Goldman Sachs and Berkshire Hathaway.  Looks like our modern day version of Moses and Aaron have done it again.  Leading their investors across the dangerous waters of the global economy to live in the promised land of happy shareholders.

As one of the world’s preeminent investment banks and purveyor of capitalist virtues,  company shareholders must be questioning how Goldman’s managers will realize a return on this investment?  Has management examined the potential corporate and societal moral hazards surrounding the program?  Surely shareholders have asked when they expect to be compensated for this significant outlay of capital.   The desire to realize gain is a more plausible motivator and makes more sense for an enterprise like Goldman and the storied investment Wizard from Omaha.

Its wise to ascribe the best intentions and virtuous motivations to actions that we may not fully understand.  This program should be viewed as a seminal event in the history of corporate social responsibility and social entrepreneurship.  Its important to understand that institutions that practice corporate social responsibility do not engage it solely as a philanthropic  endeavor.  Indeed, the benefits of good corporate citizenship pays multidimensional dividends.  All ultimately accrue to the benefit of company shareholders and the larger community of corporate stakeholders.

Goldman’s  move to walk the point of a capital formation initiative for SMEs seeks to mitigate macroeconomic risk factors that are prolonging the recession and pressuring Goldman’s business.   Goldman needs a vibrant US economy if it is to sustain its profitability,  long term growth and global competitiveness.  Goldman needs a strong regional and local banking sector to support its securitization, investment banking and corporate finance business units.   Healthy SMEs are a critical component to a healthy commercial banking sector.  Goldman recent chartering as an FDIC bank holding company may also be a factor to consider.  This SME lending initiative will provide interesting insights into the dynamics of a market space and potential lines of business that are relatively new to Goldman Sachs.  This initiative might presage a community banking acquisition program by Goldman.  At the very least the community banking sector is plagued with over capacity is in dire need of rationalization.  Goldman’s crack team of corporate finance and M&A professionals expertise would be put to good use here.

Goldman’s action to finance SMEs will also serve to incubate a new class of High Net Worth (HNW) investors.  Flush with cash from successful entrepreneurial endeavors, the nouveau riche will be eager to deploy excess capital into equities and bonds, hedge funds and private equity partnerships.  Healthy equity markets and a growing Alternative Investment Management  market is key to a healthy Goldman business franchise.

Community banks, principal lenders to SMEs are  still reeling from the credit crisis are concerned about troubled assets on their balance sheets.  Bankers can’t afford more write downs on non-performing loans and remain highly risk adverse to credit default exposures.  Local banks have responded by drastically reducing credit risk to SMEs by curtailing new lending activity.  The strain of a two-year recession and limited credit access has taking its toll on SMEs.  The recession has hurt sales growth across all market segments causing SMEs to layoff employees or shut down driving unemployment rates ever higher.  Access to this sector would boost Goldman’s securitization and restructuring advisory businesses positioning it to deepen its participation in the PPIP and TALF programs.

The financial condition of commercial and regional banks are expected to remain stressed for the foreseeable future.  Community banks have large credit exposures to SME and local commercial real estate.  Consumer credit woes and high unemployment rates will generate continued losses from credit cards and auto loans.  Losses from commercial real estate loans due to high vacancy rates are expected to create significant losses for the sector.

Reduced revenue, protracted softness in the business cycle and closed credit channels are creating perfect storm conditions for SME’s. Bank’s reluctance to lend and the high cost of capital from other alternative credit channels coupled with weak cash flows from declining sales are creating liquidity problems for many SMEs.   Its a growing contagion of financial distress.  This contagion could infect Goldman and would have a profound impact on the company’s financial health.

The 10,000 Businesses  initiative will strengthen the free flow of investment capital to finance national economic development and empower SMEs.  It strengthens free market capitalism and has the potential to pool, unleash and focus investment capital into a strategic market segment that has no access to public equity and curtailed lines of traditional bank credit. The 10,000 Businesses initiative  will encourage wider participation by banking and private equity funds.  In the aggregate, this will help to achieve strategic objectives, build wealth and realize broader goals to assure sustainable growth and global competitiveness.  All to the benefit of Goldman Sachs’ shareholders and it global investment banking franchise.

Sum2 believes that corporate social responsibility is a key tenet of a sound practice program. Goldman Sach’s has always been a market leader.  We salute Goldman Sachs’ initiative and welcome its success.

In  September of 2008,  Sum2 announced The Hamilton Plan calling for the founding of an SME Development Bank (SDB).  The SDB would serve as an aggregator of capital from numerous stakeholders to focus capital investment for SME manufactures.   More on the Hamilton Plan can be read here: SME Development Bank.

Risk:  SME, bank, recession, unemployment, credit, private equity

You Tube Music: 10,000 Manaics, Natalie Merchant: Dust Bowl

November 20, 2009 Posted by | banking, corporate social responsibility, Hamilton Plan, hedge funds, investments, off shore, PPIP, private equity, Profit|Optimizer, recession, reputation, reputational risk, SME, sound practices, Sum2, TALF, unemployment | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Blog Action Day: The Jersey Tomato is Hurtin Too!

jersey tomatoThis summer Georgia and other southwestern states emerged from their prolonged drought by experiencing the nightmare of devastating floods.  It was shocking to see how volatile and changeable the climate of that region was becoming.  I counted my blessings that I lived in New Jersey because our moderate climate saved us from living through those types of extreme weather events.

During the summer my wife and I took a trip to Northern California.  We hiked through the dwindling Redwood forests and scaled peaks in Lassen Volcano National Park.   It’s beauty was at times overwhelming.  One afternoon we took a dip in the pristine Yuba River but we had to cut that short due to the raging 49er fire that destroyed over 50 homes and businesses.  We were happy to return home to New Jersey where the problems posed by wild fires and exceedingly dry climate are not that  great a threat.

In addition to a temperate climate another benefit New Jersey offers its residents is the famous Jersey Tomato.  Those with discerning pallets eagerly await the end of summer when farmers begin the harvest and bring to market the agricultural crown jewel of the Garden State, our beloved Jersey Tomato.  It is big, juicy and luscious.  It doesn’t require a sandwich or Hogi to sit upon.  Its is great with a touch of basil leaf or sitting a top a slice of fresh mootz, that Jersey slang for mozzarella cheese.  You can make an entire meal of it if you add some crusty Hoboken brick oven bread.  Yes, Jersey at its culinary lip smacking best.

One Saturday morning my wife returned from Abma’s Farm in Wycoff with the devastating news that their would be no Jersey Tomatoes this year.  Unusually excessive rainfall across the region had destroyed much of the crop.  We would have to do without our much looked forward to annual treat.  I was crushed.  I started to do a bit of research into this degustibus disaster.

I discovered that Jersey farmers are coping with heavy crop losses after steady summer rains saturated fields, creating an environment ripe for overgrown weeds, rot and disease.   The downpours damaged crops, from tomatoes, green bell peppers and corn, to barley, peaches and watermelon, decimating whole crops or severely reducing yield.

Wilfred Shamlin of The Courier Post reported on the economic impact the unusual weather had on some of the states farmers.  His report is an important anecdotal record of the economic distress changing weather patterns can cause.  The observations and quotes from farmers directly effected by this years extreme weather change is an important testimony on the risk of climate change and its impact on crop yields and economic solvency of small farmers agricultural businesses.

“The rains have just killed me this year,” said Tucker Gant, 51, a vegetable and fruit farmer in Elk, who estimates his total losses this year at nearly $220,000.

In Mullica Hill, Fred Grasso, 52, said late frost damaged his peaches and rot ran through his tomatoes, green bell peppers, zucchini and watermelon.  “Nobody has ever seen rain as drastic as this year, even talking to old-time farmers,” said Grasso, a third-generation farmer who estimates losses so far at roughly $50,000.

“Weeds are a big issue, especially in a wet year. When it’s time to cultivate, you can’t and when you finally get in there and cultivate, and it rains day after day, weeds set in and reroot because of the moisture,” Grasso said.  “Weeds steal nutrients from crops, grow tall and block out sunlight, and prevent plants from drying out after rainfall. And constant rain creates problem because the weeds grow faster and herbicides get washed away before they work.”

“It’s never been that bad as far as I can remember,” said Gant, pointing to water pooling in a field as he drove his pickup truck along a bumpy dirt trail toward 35 acres of barley overrun by tall weeds. “I have never seen water lay there more than two days. It should have been harvested, but you can’t harvest weeds taller than barley.”  Blueberry and peaches thrived in the wet weather but the same disease responsible for the Irish potato famine attacked South Jersey’s tomato crops.

“Farmers’ yields will be down this year because a lot of fruit out there wasn’t able to be marketed,” said Michelle Casella, an agricultural agent for Rutgers Cooperative Extension for Gloucester County.   Gov. Jon S. Corzine has requested that 15 counties be declared disaster areas by the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture after rain, hail, wind and even a tornado caused crop and property damage across the state. The designation would allow farmers with severe weather-related losses to apply for emergency low-interest loans.

This year’s hay crop was such poor quality that Gant marked down the price for landscapers, making 25 cents profit per bale rather than $1.50.   Though struggling, Gant and Grasso are bent on persevering as operating costs continue to climb. Gant’s losses include $30,000 on bales of straw for mom-and-pop stores that order 15,000 bales and sell it as decoration during the holidays. He grew enough straw to make 10,000 bales but he had to buy the remaining 5,000 bales from a neighboring farmer. Crop losses have cut into profits that the Gant and the Grasso family normally would have invested back into the farm. “We have cut every corner we can without hurting the business itself,” Grasso said. “We’re at just about the limit where we can’t cut anymore. I’m trying to conserve.”

Gant said he has depleted his retirement savings and supplements his income by working three days a week repairing tractor-trailers. He often works 16-hour days on the farm. His wife also works full-time.  He has trimmed unnecessary expenses, postponed farm equipment upgrades, and criticizes the federal government for coming to the aid of car dealers and other big businesses, but not farmers.

“Where’s the bailout for farmers?” Gant asked.

“When everything went into the toilet, my costs didn’t go down one bit,” Gant said.

Gant said he would need a $250,000 loan to bail out his farm.

Gant remains optimistic that he can ride out the recession. He’s planting seeds now so he can get barley, rye and wheat next spring.

“We’ll get there. It’s just a matter of time,” he said. “I believe in the Lord. I know He’s going to take care of me. That’s one reason I’m confident we can come back.”

As all farmers know, we reap what we sow.  We trust that Mr. Gant’s optimism and faith will help to restore the good fortunes of farmers and the hungry citizens of New Jersey.   We should also view this as an opportunity to begin the sowing the seeds to address the problems of climate change.  Even in an area as blessed as New Jersey.  Farmers livelihoods and a significant portion of the economy of New Jersey depends on the economic viability of small farmers.  I also have a selfish reason to address the threat of climate change.  I continue to crave the  taste of the sweet fruits of our farmers  yields and pray that the Jersey Tomato makes a reappearance on our dinner plates next summer.

This article extensively used the report of Mr. Wilford S. Shamlin at The Courier Post.

To Reach Wilford S. Shamlin at (856) 486-2475 or wshamlin@courierpostonline.com

You Tube Video:  Billie Holiday,Lets Call the Whole Thing Off

Risk; small businesses, farmers, agriculture, climate, Jersey Tomato

Riskrapper is pleased to participate in this years Blog Action Day.  The subject is climate change.  We hope you enjoyed the post.

More than 7000 bloggers have registered to participate and thousands more will join in the next 24 hours. There’s already buzz growing across the blogosphere and on Twitter in anticipation, with updates from around the world every minute about the upcoming event.

October 15, 2009 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Healing on the Sabbath

There is a wonderful story in the New Testament from the Book of Matthew. It tells about a man Jesus discovers in a synagogue with a withered hand. The Pharisees who were the fundamentalists of their day asked if it was lawful to heal on the Sabbath? Jesus answers that it is always lawful to do the right thing on the Sabbath. Jesus understood that The Divine Healer requires us always to be mindful as to how to respond to those in need even if that means violating supposedly sacred rules to do so.

The Republican Party opposition to the economic stimulus legislation reminds me of this story from the Gospel. The passage of the recovery bill in the congress was accomplished without one affirmative vote from the GOP. Almost every Republican to the last member cited concern about the country sliding into socialism. Taking a cue from lead party shill Rush Limbaugh, the self anointed demagogue and chief has been howling about the government sponsored recovery plan. Speaking for all Republicans, Rush states that government involvement will lead to the corruption of free market enterprise, ballooning administrative bureaucracies and the sure return of the debauchery of erstwhile earmarks splayed about in an orgy of pork barrel spending sprees.

The economy like the man with the shrived hand needs healing. He cannot find work if he is not healed. The doctor is in the house and being faithful to the Hippocratic Oath is compelled to heal despite the incantations of conservative demagogues of damnable results if ideological dogmas are violated.

An interesting historical analogy steeped in realpolitik can be found in a famous statement made by Deng Xiaoping as China’s disastrous Great Leap Forward was concluding. Said Deng: “I don’t care if it’s a white cat or a black cat. It’s a good cat so long as it catches mice.” This was interpreted to mean that being productive is more important then upholding beliefs in communism or capitalism.

The leader of China at the time, Mao Tse-Tung saw this type of thinking as a great threat to his power. To consolidate his power and mitigate the threat Deng’s thinking represented, Mao launched the equally disastrous Cultural Revolution. Deng and his policies were rehabilitated years later only after the damage of the Cultural Revolution became apparent. The adoption of liberalized economic reforms and the eradication of ideological strictures has done wonders for China. Like Mao, the GOP demands ideological purity regardless of the effect. The United States has pursued the policies advocated by the GOP since the Reagan Administration. Those policies and philosophies have brought us to where we sit today. A moribund economy over dependent on a financial services industry, leverage and the availability of cheap credit.

President Obama’s recovery program is classic move taken from the Keynesian economics playbook. It offers a massive capital infusion into the economy that is funded by an increase in Federal debt and a generous tax cuts that should satiate the most rabid Reaganomic raconteur. Obama is not beholden to ideology. The Great Empiricist has proclaimed the death to all ideologies and is not beholden to the stale bread of old dogmas. Obama is willing and most able to craft solutions from tools and systemic loam to effect the cure. He might even resort to a dollop of supply-siderism and sprinkle a bitty bit of voodoo economics on the zombie republicans to get the American economy going again.

You Tube Video: Dr. John, Gris-Gris Gumbo Ya Ya

Risk: economy, politics, recession

January 30, 2009 Posted by | economics, heal, Obama, recession, republicans, rock | , , , , , | Leave a comment

Corporate Extinctions

A large meteor that hit the Yucatan peninsula 65 million years ago is considered one of the causal factors that led to the mass extinction of the dinosaurs. The theory gained wide acceptance after a photogemmetric satellite captured the image of the Chicxulub Crater centered just off the peninsulas northeast shore. The meteor theory seemed to solve the dinosaur extinction mystery of how a dominant species that ruled the earth for 200 million years can suddenly disappear. Apparently the theory suggests that the extinction happened more with a bang then a whimper.

Like the Chicxulub meteor, the economic crash of 2008 promises to claim a dramatic toll of corporate victims and drastically alter the landscape of the global capitalist system. The casualty list prominently includes some marquis corporate banking brands like Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, WAMU, Wachovia, Fannie, Freddie, Fortis, RBS, NorthernRock and threatens to claim the solvent souls of a UBS or Citibank. The State of California and the Sovereign State of Iceland are also endangered and the economic crisis may claim them as its biggest prize.

Hedge funds are quickly folding up shop. Morgan Stanley estimates that the AUM of the industry may shrink from $1.9tr to $900bn due to market losses and investor redemption and withdrawals. At its peak the global hedge fund industry was estimated to offer AIM products by over 6000 providers. By the close of the next year the size of the industry will be considerably smaller as capacity downsizes to serve less demand. Downsizing will also be the prevailing theme for community banks, RIA’s and CTA’s as excess capacity is worked out of the system through closures, consolidations and seizures. This contraction will effect industry service providers that sell services to the financial services market. Lawyers, accountants, IT providers and consultants will be hard pressed to maintain their book of business as the market for their services contracts.

Free marketeers and Social Darwinists may find it right and fitting that the financial services industry comprises the bulk of the corporate casualty list due to their culpability in nurturing this economic apocalypse and their proximity to the epicenter of the crash. The Hollow Men who led the US economic colossus to this dramatic self immolation however won’t have to fall on their swords. Their champion in the Treasury Mr. Paulson has swaddled them in a protective TARP so these masters of the universe can don superman capes to continue their selfless endeavor of saving the US economy from a total collapse.

Unfortunately the deadly meteor that almost liquidated the banking system is spreading outward to what some refer to as the real economy. Goldman Sachs’ indicates that the recession will shave a cool $1.3tr from the GDP. This will inhibit buying power by individuals, corporations and governments. Some economists fear that this will create enormous deflationary pressure prolonging the recession. Many see similarities with the Japanese recession of the 1980’s. That recession brought on by the burst of Godzilla sized real estate and equity market bubbles lasted for over a decade. Japanese central bankers cut interest rates to almost zero and the vicious downward spiral of the economy recovered as a result of SE Asian and North American market demand drivers that fueled tremendous export growth.

Retail is another sector that will be particularly hit hard by corporate failures. Industry statistics indicate that 14,000 retailers are expected to close their doors during the next year. US auto dealerships from the Big Three are expected to contract by 25%. The auto industry is a major hub of a large and intricate manufacturing supply chain and as such this sector will be hit hard with business closures as well. Construction, housing and domestic oriented leisure industries will continue to stagnate as the American consumer buying power evaporates. Not good news for an economy so strongly dependent on consumer spending.

Yesterday the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announced that the economy went into a recession in December 2007. Its a bit funny that it took a year for the NBER to hear, feel and detect the Chicxulub Meteor that crashed into our economy. Today’s Employment Report from ADP indicates that the US economy shed another 250,000 jobs during the month of November. Now that the reality of the recession is upon us the corporate endangered species list will be a pressing problem and success metric that the Obama Administration will need to squarely address with any stimulus package he plans to enact to get the economy moving again. This actually bodes well for the passage of a rescue package for the Big Three Automakers. One thing is certain, urgent action is required or our economy will continue to go down not with a bang but with a whimper.

You tube video: Ranny Weeks and Orchestra: Out of Nowhere

Risk: recession, bankruptcy, solvency, rescue package, economic stimulus

December 4, 2008 Posted by | banking, bankruptsy, Bear Stearns, economics, Paulson, pop, unemployment | , , , , | Leave a comment

SME Development Bank

Over the Labor Day Weekend Sum2 announced The Hamilton Plan. The Hamilton Plan is a ten point program to foster the development of manufacturing in the United States by tapping the entrepreneurial energy of small and mid-size enterprises (SME). The plan’s 10 points address sustainable business models, GRC best practices, capital formation initiatives, SME banking, labor union stakeholder empowerment, association syndication, cooperative formation, support for public education and cooperative learning.

This is an introduction to The Hamilton Plan, why it’s needed and the call for the creation of an SME Development Bank (SDB) to facilitate capital formation to achieve the goals of the program.

The Hamilton Plan, named after the first Secretary of the Treasury of the United States, proposes a ten point program to develop small and mid-size enterprise (SME) manufactures. The Hamilton Plan invites business owners and executives, industry associations, chambers of commerce, banks, capital market participants, labor unions, academia, non-profit organizations and governmental institutions to join forces in a concerted effort to support the reestablishment of the manufacturing infrastructure of the United States.

The vital national interest can be served by institutions representing business, labor, local communities and government to join together to foster optimal conditions to incubate and develop SME manufactures. SMEs are a natural strength of the US economy. SME represent largest most vibrant sector of the economy and by combining the entrepreneurial drive and creative energy of SME’s with the pressing need for innovative manufactures; America can reestablish its ascendancy as a preeminent power in the global economy. The Hamilton Plan is designed to provide incentives and encourage the formation of support clusters to develop SME manufacturing.

The Hamilton Plan:

1. Adoption of World Business Council Standards for Sustainable Business

2. Establish Incubators for Targeted Growth Industries

3. Adopt Sound Governance, Risk, Compliance Practices (GRC)

4. Formation of SME Development Bank / Capital Formation Initiatives

5. Partnership Lyceums for Government / Business / Academic Institutions

6. Labor Unions as Preferred Stakeholder / Association Syndication Unions

7. Establish Cooperatives for Technology / Licensing / Commodities / Energy

8. Superfund for Progressive Tax Code / Universal Health & Benefits

Infrastructure Investment / Brownfield Remediation and Reclamation

9. Expand Public Education Funding & SME COOP Program

10. Support Millennium Development Goals

Capital Formation Key to Success

The Hamilton Plan in its entirety is designed to respond to the compounding economic and political crisis that is confronting the United States. The credit crisis, energy dependence, industrial stasis, trade deficits, geo-political instabilities, aging infrastructure and climate change are the result of long term systemic problems that government and industry has failed to address effectively. The Hamilton Plan advocates the adoption of the program to squarely address these pressing issues with the full understanding that it will require the concerted cooperation of all stakeholders to assure the continued development, security and prosperity of America.

The Hamilton Plan requires concerted focus of investment capital to fund development and to make sure that assets are allocated to channels that will assure optimal returns and that equity participation of stakeholders is protected and rewarded. The establishment of an SME Development Bank (SDB) is a structured investment vehicle and corporate institution that will focus, manage and administer capital formation initiatives to incubate and develop SME manufactures.

At its core, The Hamilton Plan seeks to preserve the free flow of investment capital to finance national economic development and empower SME manufactures. The Hamilton Plan is not a substitution nor in any way seeks to supplant the American free market system. The Plan is designed to unleash, pool and focus investment capital. The Plan leverages regulatory capital, compliance and governance. The Plan seeks to achieve strategic economic goals, build wealth and prosperity in US and realize broader goals and objectives to assure sustainable economic growth, nurture innovation,  ecological balance and global competitiveness.

SME Development Bank (SDB)

The SDB would be chartered to assure that capital is deployed to meet appropriate program projects and assure effective stewardship of shareholders capital. The SDB would be the repository for economic and regulatory capital. It would maintain capital adequacy ratios in conformance with Basel II directives. The SDB would serve as a fiduciary to distribute capital through local community banking channels. SDB governance would assure that program objectives, ownership equity, credit requirements, capital allocations, shareholder rights and income distributions are made to SDB shareholders.

Government funding of the SDB would consist of share purchases financed by capital from a national development Superfund. The Superfund would receive tax receipts from a progressive national tax program, budget allocations, licensing and royalty receipts, dividend reinvestment’s and capital gains proceeds from the sale of assets.

Shareholders in the SDB would be community banks, institutional fund managers, state/local/federal government, private equity firms, business owners, company management, associations, labor unions, employees, academic institutions, non-profits organizations. Different forms of capital would be recognized and used to purchase shares in the SDB. For example, local governments can purchase shares in the SDB with tax credits or land grants or infrastructure improvement projects; labor can purchase shares with sweat equity, academic institutions with intellectual capital etc.

Securitization of SDB shares can be created to trade on public exchanges. Any secondary market listings would occur after underlying assets have been properly seasoned. Shares in the SDB would offer terms of extended time frames for investment lockup and share redemption.

Community Bankers as Risk Managers and Distribution Conduits

Community Banks have a critical role as an SDB equity partner. The community bank is the primary channel by which equity and credit capital is provided to the SME. They are front line risk managers and advisors for portfolio companies. Community banks are astute relationship managers. Community banks understand local market conditions and can link assets and service providers to build support clusters and expanded value chains for SMEs. Community bankers will help SMEs focus on capital allocation strategies and support efforts in encourage growth and profitability.

They will provide help in the following areas:

Corporate Governance
Risk Management
Business Promotion, Acceleration and Development
Corporate Advisory Services
Information Services
Performance Evaluation Services

Community banks will be offered regulatory capital relief through its equity participation in the SDB. Community banks will form a joint back office (JBO) to address regulatory capital requirements for its participation and share ownership in the SDB. Community banks must continue fulfill capital requirements for retail banking and other lines of business in accordance with regulatory requirements of its governing agency. State regulatory agencies relating to SME banking regulation, enforcement and inspection would conform to a unified national banking regulatory agency.

Community banks will share in the equity appreciation of the SME and any distributions, dividends or corporate actions the Board of the SDB effects. The differentiation of credit and equity capital participation will be accounted for at the SDB level. Administrators for hedge funds and other Alternative Investment Vehicles have developed sophisticated partnership and shareholding accounting capabilities that can address questions of share class ownership, tranche construction and attributes, asset valuation, distributions and returns.

The community bank in working in conjunction with the SDB will help SME’s effectively manage risk, improve stakeholder communication, implement effective corporate governance that create sustainable business practices to assure long term profitability and growth.

The Hamilton Plan lays the foundation for SMEs to seize market opportunities. SMEs in partnership with community bankers must assess products and markets, business functions and critical success factors. Sufficiently capitalized by the SDB, the SME and local bankers will execute an action plan to support the corporate mission in line with the larger goals of The Hamilton Plan to build wealth for its shareholders and assure the future prosperity of America.

Song: Average White Band: Work To Do

Risk: manufacturing, small and mid-size business, global competitiveness, middle class, national prosperity

September 3, 2008 Posted by | Hamilton Plan, hedge funds, manufacturing, Millennium Development Goals, pop, recession, SME | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

InBev Looks To Chug a Few Long Necks and Knock Down Some Tall Boys

In a sign of the weak state of the dollar, the Belgian-Brazilian brewer, InBev has made an unsolicited takeover offer to acquire the leading American brewer and corporate icon Anheuser-Busch (BUD). The much beloved maker and marketer of America’s favorite beer, InBev’s $46.3 billion offer for BUD is indeed a tall drink to down but is the latest example of the growing thirst of foreign investors for cheap American assets.

InBev’s offer may raise the ire of patriotic beer drinkers. Many see the acquisition as another example of the decline of America’s industrial capacity. The acquisition has the potential of becoming an emotional issue for Americans because of the strong cultural and national identification of the brand with the American psyche. Busch Stadium the home of the baseball Cardinals in St. Louis, the Clydesdales delivering Christmas trees to snowed in rural homesteads, frogs incantating the BUD mantra in the bayous of the south and urban hipsters greeting homies with a “waz up”has thoroughly ingrained the brand identity and product consumption into the American experience.

America is up for sale at bargain basement prices. The rise of the EURO against the dollar, constrained domestic credit markets and free markets insatiable thirst for efficiency, rationalization and optimal returns are basic economic drivers of this Trans Atlantic-Pan American cross border acquisition.

It will become a prominent theme for American business for the foreseeable future. When you say Budweiser, you said it all.

Risk: dollar denominated assets, currency, brand marketing, American industry, M&A, foreign exchange, EURO, EU,

June 17, 2008 Posted by | economics, private equity, US dollar | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment