Risk Rap

Rapping About a World at Risk

Baggin Bears in Jersey

Locked and loaded their going for bear in New Jersey’s Highland Region.  The Highlands is one of the states last stand of expansive underdeveloped woodlands and critical watershed that provides drinking water to over two million state residents.  The Highlands is also the preferred habitat and home to most of the states black bears.  But starting Monday, the Highlands will become a deadly killing ground for the lovable species as the state appeals court threw out a suit brought by two animal rights groups to halt a six day bear hunt.

Environmental Commissioner Bob Martin signed off on this year’s hunt, saying it’s needed to help control a growing black bear population. The agency estimates the state’s black bear population at 3,400, up from 500 bears in 1992.

“The Comprehensive Black Bear Management Policy is full of scientific flaws and outright fabrications,” APL contends. “In their zeal to hold a recreational trophy hunt, the council has slapped together a scientifically sloppy, self-contradictory document that pretends the hunt is necessary when in fact, the science does not support a hunt.”

The suit filed by the Animal Protection League (APL) contends that the scientific assessment of the bear population and its environmental impact is flawed and its findings are biased.  The suit also alleges that proponents of the hunt,  The New Jersey Outdoor Alliance made illegal contributions to Gov. Chris Christie’s election campaign.  The  New Jersey Outdoor Alliance disputes the claims made by the APL and issued a response that appears on the Ammoland website.

During public hearings comments ran 3 to 1 against the bear hunt.  Public opposition to the hunt has been vocal and considerable.  If the voice of the public counts for nothing why go through the charade of soliciting public comments?  A recent public hearing on the expansion of the El Paso Corp gas pipeline through the Highland region had a similar tenor to it.  Of the twenty of so citizens and groups who spoke at the meeting not one supported the expansion of the pipeline.  Local residents and groups affected by the El Paso expansion initiative are concerned that their opposition to the project is falling on deaf ears of regulators and government officials responsible for green lighting the project.  If the project is a fait accompli regardless of public criticism why solicit  public comment and go through the motions of participatory democracy?

The Highlands Commission was formed to determine how the resources of the region are managed and how the area will be developed.  The Highland region is a critical watershed area and a vital open recreational space for an overwhelmingly urban state.  The Highlands Commission is the stewardship body chartered to reconcile the competing interests of a complex community of stakeholders.  The immediate needs of wildlife preservation, smart development and long term sustainability of an environmentally stressed ecosystem will require effective engagement of all Highland Community stakeholders.  Governor Christie’s slate of nominees to to the Highland Council  is being criticized as too pro development.   This may auger well for stakeholders like El Paso Corp but it may have deadly consequences for endangered bears and other species struggling to hang on in an increasingly hostile environment.

You Tube Video: Junglebook, Bare Necessities

Risk: environment, bears, sustainability, water, open spaces, democracy

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December 3, 2010 Posted by | associations, democracy, ecological, environment, government, politics, regulatory, sustainability | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Prognostications and Expostulations

We’re going out on a limb with this one or given thats its winter we’ll say we’re walking on thin ice. We’ll gaze into the crystal ball and pontificate on eleven subject areas for 2010. With some we hope we will be wrong. With some we hope we will be right.

1. Stock Market: Buoyed by well managed earnings by the large multinational companies in the DOW, principally as a result of cost reduction initiatives and exposure to global markets the Index will finish up 6% and close at 11, 011 on the last trading day of 2010. Given an inflation rate of 4% investors will realize a 2% gain on equity investments in DOW constituents. S&P 500 and NASDAQ will be flat gaining 2% for the year.

2. Iraq War: The war in Iraq will continue to wind down. America will scale down its military presence in the country. Troop levels in the country will approximate 85,000 by the close of 2010. Though direct American military involvement in conflicts will decline, Iraq will experience civil unrest as Kurd nationalists, Shiite and Sunni Muslims seek to protect their political and economic interests.

3. Afghanistan War: The escalation of America’s military presence in Afghanistan will move the theater of war further into Pakistan. The Taliban will be satisfied to harass US forces by engaging in a guerrilla war. Taliban and Al-Qaeda supporters will use the opportunity to increase the level of urban terrorist attacks in the large cities of Pakistan. Al-Qaeda confederates will seek to reestablish base of support in Somalia, Yemen and ties will begin to emerge in Latin American narco-terror states.

4. Iran: The political situation in Iran will continue to deteriorate. This is a positive development for regional stability because it will force the ruling regime to cede its nuclear program development initiatives. Iran will not be able to capitalize on the US draw down in Iraq. It will become increasingly isolated as Hezbollah and Hamas pursue actions that are less confrontational to Israel in Palestine and Lebanon. The ruling Caliphate position will weaken due to internal political dissent and external economic pressures.

5. China: It will be a year of ultra-nationalism in China. Its stimulus program that is targeted to internal development will sustain a GDP growth rate of 8%. China will use this opportunity to strengthen the ideological support of its citizens to fall in line with the national development initiative. Globally China will continue to expand its interests in Africa and will cull deeper relationships with its Pacific Rim club member Latin America. China will continue to use US preoccupation with its wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and skirmishes in Yemen and Somalia as an opportunity to expand its global presence with a message of peace and cooperation.

5. US Mid Term Elections: Republicans will gain a number of seats in Congress. The continued soft economic conditions, state and local government fiscal crisis, war weariness and cut back in services and rising expenses will make this a bad year for incumbents and the party in power, namely the democrats. Sarah Palin will play a large role in supporting anti-government candidates drooling over the prospect of winning a seat in government.

6. Recession: Though the recession may be officially over, high unemployment, home foreclosures and spiking interest rates will hamper a robust recovery. The end of large government stimulus programs and the continued decrease in real estate values also present strong headwinds to recovery. We predict a GDP growth rate of 2% for the US economy. Outsourcing will abate and a move to reintroduce SME manufacturing will commence.

7. Technology: The new green technology will focus on the development of nuclear power plants.  The clash of the titan’s between Google’s Droid and Apple’s I Phone will dominate tech news during the year.  Lesser skirmishes  between Smart Phones makers or the war of the clones will continue to explode altering the home PC market and continue to change the market paradigm for old line firms like DELL, Microsoft and HP.   SaaS or cloud computing will gain on the back of lean business process initiatives and smart phone application development and processing infrastructure will encourage cottage industries fueling the cloud and making for some new millionaires. The tension between the creators of content and search and delivery will begin to tilt back toward the content providers. Litigation involving social networking sites will be filed to create safeguards against its use as a tool to control and manipulate behaviors thus threatening civil liberties and privacy rights.

8. Culture: The Googlization of civilization will allow individuals to embrace more corporatism as a pillar to add efficiency and order to their lives. Multiculturalism will continue to grow in the US. However a growing political backlash against it will become more of a prominent theme as Teabaggers agitate for a return to the true values of America. Electronic arts will make major leaps and bounds as commodification continues to be a driving force in the world of art. Printed words like books and newspapers will continue to dramatically decline. Writing, drawing and playing musical instruments skills will ebb as people prefer to develop digital skill sets. Texting and Tweeting make for poor practice for extended compositions.

9. Latin America: Instability will grow in Latin America as narcodollars continue to undermine political stability in Columbia, Venezuela, Mexico and Panama. The US will increasingly become involved in the conflicts between petro and narcodollars. Mexico’s stability will be increasingly undermined by the power and corruptible influence of the drug trade. China’s influence on the continent will grow.

10. European Union: The EU will continue to manage itself for stability. It will yearn to return to its aristocratic roots and will become increasingly conservative. It will continue to have a complex relationship with the expanding Muslim community. A call to deeper nationalism will arise out of a growing influence of Islam and the inefficiencies of EC bureaucrats in Belgium. The EU will continue its union of expediency to counterbalance their distrust of Russia and their distaste for America.

11. Environmental Justice: Though awareness continues to grow concerning the need to mount and implement large scale solutions to halt the problem of global climate change; the political will and resources required to drastically alter the planets current trajectory in growth of carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels remains unaltered. Social responsible enterprises, small businesses and individuals continue to make a difference. Eco friendly small businesses, urban farming, capital formation initiatives around renewable energy businesses are hopeful signs of a market response to the pressing problem. China is investing heavily in becoming a market leader out of business savvy and environmental necessity. Until the great powers of the world can come to some collective agreement on how to limit , cap or trade carbon credits we’ll have to be content to separate the trash and recycle, reuse and reduce.

You Tube Music Video: Donald Byrd, Stepping Into Tomorrow

Risk: unfulfilled predictions will make me look bad

January 5, 2010 Posted by | business, China, commerce, corporate social responsibility, culture, ecological, government, inflation, unemployment, war | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Blame it on the Muskrat Ramble

CNN was showing dramatic footage of another levee failure along the Mississippi River. The town of Winfield Missouri lost its battle to keep its town flood free due to the subversive activity of muskrats.

According to the Army Corps of Engineers, the pesky muskrats used a burrow and bore strategy to undermine the structural integrity of the levees protecting the town. The muskrats dug deep holes into the levees in search of food and safety that ultimately defeated the heroic actions and laborious efforts of townsfolk desperately fighting to defend their community from the ravages of the flood.

It appears that the muskrats used a maneuver that was similar to the unsuccessful strategy employed by the Union Army in the Siege of Petersburg’s Battle of the Crater. Unfortunately the muskrat’s natural burrowing instincts got the upper hand on the best efforts of human engineers.

When the muskrat’s holes appeared, citizens covered them with sandbags but it only seemed to postpone the inevitable and unfortunate breach of the town’s defenses. The levee failure flooded approximately 1,000 acres of land in this community of 720.

The rascally rodent may have won the battle of Winfield Levee; but this skirmish will serve as a reminder that our country needs to marshal its forces and make substantial investments in national infrastructure. This is a war we cannot afford to lose. We must redirect our national priorities to defend and protect our beloved country.

The Captain and Tennille know something about muskrats.

So too does the great Louis Armstrong.

Risk: infrastructure, flood, opportunity cost, national priorities, agriculture

June 28, 2008 Posted by | environment, infrastructure, jazz, pop, risk management | , , , , , | Leave a comment