Risk Rap

Rapping About a World at Risk

Leaky Reactors, Cyber Terror and Police States

This is how the world ends
This is how the world ends
This is how the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper
The Hallow Men TS Elliot

A few interesting  news items recently passed without much notice.  Two nuclear reactors located in the Northeast had to be  brought offline due to operational failures.  The Vermont Yankee reactor sprang a leak and had to be shut down.  The other incident occurred at the thirty six year old Indian Point reactor located about twenty miles north of New York City.  The cause of the problem at Indian Point was a transformer fire.  Both reactors  are owned and operated by Entergy and mirror similar problems at the Excelon operated Oyster Creek reactor located in south central New Jersey.

These incidents are endemic to aging nuclear power facilities.  These plants came on line during the the 1970’s and are now approaching the half century mark of service.  When these plants were commissioned it was believed they would have a shelf life of 40 years.   As the expected useful life span of these facilities approach regulators routinely grant extensions to the operators.  Operating these facilities past that point heighten potential risk factors.  As nuclear reactors age, the stress on these complex systems and containment facilities raise risk factors heightening the potential of system failure that lead to catastrophic events.

Leaky plumbing at the Oyster Creek nuclear plant is the culprit in poisoning the Cohansey Aquifer with 180,000 gallons of tritium contaminated water.  Regulators and environmental officials assert that the level of radio active isotopes in the water supply that serves South Jersey and parts of Philadelphia is well within acceptable levels for human consumption.  I guess that all depends on your definition of human; but I and many others remain skeptical on the subject of drinking radioactive laced water.

The aging nuclear infrastructure of the United States is a growing cause for concern.  The nuclear power industry was halted in its tracks in the 1980’s by a strong No Nukes environmental movement.  At the time it was generally understood that the cost of catastrophic risk and the industries inability to solve the long term problem of disposal and management of nuclear waste turned the public against the industry.

The Three Mile Island accident in Pennsylvania and the disastrous meltdown at Chernobyl in the Russian Caucuses led to a moratorium on new plant construction in the United States leading to the actual abandonment of plant construction in the Washington and New York.  It created a capital market crisis as the fear of defaults on WPPSS  revenue bonds spread to cast long shadows on the entire Muni Bond market.  The state of  New York stepped in to purchase the facilities of Long Island Power in order to make bondholders of the closed facility whole with tax payer money.  It was kind of like socialism for investors.

While most of the world has continued to build nuclear plants to address growing energy needs; the United States has not built a nuclear plant since the 1980’s and has lagged the world in using nuclear power to address energy needs. Sentiment on the desirability of nuclear power is beginning to change.  The Pickens Plan, former VP Dick Cheney’s secret meetings to develop a national energy strategy, the Gulf Oil Spill, the need to reduce dependence on foreign oil and the growing acceptance that the burning of fossil fuels is slowly cooking the planet has placed nuclear power back on the table as a viable component of America’s energy portfolio.

China is committed to building 100 nuclear power plants to wean itself from its crippling dependence on coal.  The United States is charging hard to keep up with its fast growing Asian competitor in a 21st Century nuclear power race.  The aggressive pursuit of nuclear plant development will increase the power and control of corporate entities charged with their construction, management and on going administration.  To accomplish a dramatic build-out in nuclear infrastructure large areas of  land situated near a plentiful water supply will need to be secured.   Environmental impacts, regulatory oversight and public transparency will be sacrificed at the alter of cost efficiency, expedience in implementation and security to protect the vulnerable facilities against the pervasive armies of terrorists that lurk in the shadows near every nuclear plant.

The controversy surrounding the collusion of government and business to exploit the Marcellus Shale natural gas vein is an instructive model of what we can expect from the stakeholders pursuing an aggressive campaign to develop Americas nuclear power infrastructure.  The dismissal of regulatory controls, the eminent domain of corporate interests, the opaque wall that shrouds risks factors and hides the environmental degradation resulting from the practice of fracking and the sacrifice of watersheds and aquifers to the expeditious extraction of natural gas are some of the documented behaviors of  a wanton corporate will imposed on the body politic.  Tragically this near sighted perspective willfully sacrifices the sustainable ecology of communities to the sole purpose of the profitable extraction of resources to serve shareholders of private corporations.   The nature of the nuclear beast will require that its interests be enforced by courts of law guided by extreme prejudice and protected by police battalions, state  guard units and private security groups in the name of national security interests.

The recently discovered Stuxnet computer virus is an indication of how the stakes are being raised in the nuclear power shell game.  The launch of a successful cyber attack on a nuclear facility anywhere in the world is a real game changer.  Self deluded uber patriots act more  like real pinheads if they believe that the destruction of Iran’s nuclear power capability is a harbinger for Middle East peace or enhances the   security of either Israel or the United States.  A nuclear event in Iran or North Korea are real game changers for the course of human history and the well being of  humanity. A clandestine service that can take out Iranian nuclear reactors can also be deployed to take out a reactor that is twenty miles north of New York City.  Or consider the consequences of a summer heat wave ravaging the citizens Philadelphia dying of thirst because the water supply is contaminated with radiation.  The extent of civil unrest would be extreme overwhelming the local law enforcement and judicial capabilities.  If these bleak scenarios come to pass,  Americans will be pining away for the good old days when a quick feel up at the airport by a TSA gendarme is fondly recalled like a high school make out session.  The pernicious yoke of marshal law under the nuclear challenged corporate security state will be incessant in practice and swift, sure and dire in its execution.

You Tube music video: No Nukes Concert 1979: Doobie Brothers Taking it to The Streets

Risk: democracy, energy policy, nuclear power, civil liberties

 

November 22, 2010 Posted by | community, culture, democracy, disaster planning, ecological, energy, environment, government, military, nuclear, regulatory, risk management | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Prognostications and Expostulations

We’re going out on a limb with this one or given thats its winter we’ll say we’re walking on thin ice. We’ll gaze into the crystal ball and pontificate on eleven subject areas for 2010. With some we hope we will be wrong. With some we hope we will be right.

1. Stock Market: Buoyed by well managed earnings by the large multinational companies in the DOW, principally as a result of cost reduction initiatives and exposure to global markets the Index will finish up 6% and close at 11, 011 on the last trading day of 2010. Given an inflation rate of 4% investors will realize a 2% gain on equity investments in DOW constituents. S&P 500 and NASDAQ will be flat gaining 2% for the year.

2. Iraq War: The war in Iraq will continue to wind down. America will scale down its military presence in the country. Troop levels in the country will approximate 85,000 by the close of 2010. Though direct American military involvement in conflicts will decline, Iraq will experience civil unrest as Kurd nationalists, Shiite and Sunni Muslims seek to protect their political and economic interests.

3. Afghanistan War: The escalation of America’s military presence in Afghanistan will move the theater of war further into Pakistan. The Taliban will be satisfied to harass US forces by engaging in a guerrilla war. Taliban and Al-Qaeda supporters will use the opportunity to increase the level of urban terrorist attacks in the large cities of Pakistan. Al-Qaeda confederates will seek to reestablish base of support in Somalia, Yemen and ties will begin to emerge in Latin American narco-terror states.

4. Iran: The political situation in Iran will continue to deteriorate. This is a positive development for regional stability because it will force the ruling regime to cede its nuclear program development initiatives. Iran will not be able to capitalize on the US draw down in Iraq. It will become increasingly isolated as Hezbollah and Hamas pursue actions that are less confrontational to Israel in Palestine and Lebanon. The ruling Caliphate position will weaken due to internal political dissent and external economic pressures.

5. China: It will be a year of ultra-nationalism in China. Its stimulus program that is targeted to internal development will sustain a GDP growth rate of 8%. China will use this opportunity to strengthen the ideological support of its citizens to fall in line with the national development initiative. Globally China will continue to expand its interests in Africa and will cull deeper relationships with its Pacific Rim club member Latin America. China will continue to use US preoccupation with its wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and skirmishes in Yemen and Somalia as an opportunity to expand its global presence with a message of peace and cooperation.

5. US Mid Term Elections: Republicans will gain a number of seats in Congress. The continued soft economic conditions, state and local government fiscal crisis, war weariness and cut back in services and rising expenses will make this a bad year for incumbents and the party in power, namely the democrats. Sarah Palin will play a large role in supporting anti-government candidates drooling over the prospect of winning a seat in government.

6. Recession: Though the recession may be officially over, high unemployment, home foreclosures and spiking interest rates will hamper a robust recovery. The end of large government stimulus programs and the continued decrease in real estate values also present strong headwinds to recovery. We predict a GDP growth rate of 2% for the US economy. Outsourcing will abate and a move to reintroduce SME manufacturing will commence.

7. Technology: The new green technology will focus on the development of nuclear power plants.  The clash of the titan’s between Google’s Droid and Apple’s I Phone will dominate tech news during the year.  Lesser skirmishes  between Smart Phones makers or the war of the clones will continue to explode altering the home PC market and continue to change the market paradigm for old line firms like DELL, Microsoft and HP.   SaaS or cloud computing will gain on the back of lean business process initiatives and smart phone application development and processing infrastructure will encourage cottage industries fueling the cloud and making for some new millionaires. The tension between the creators of content and search and delivery will begin to tilt back toward the content providers. Litigation involving social networking sites will be filed to create safeguards against its use as a tool to control and manipulate behaviors thus threatening civil liberties and privacy rights.

8. Culture: The Googlization of civilization will allow individuals to embrace more corporatism as a pillar to add efficiency and order to their lives. Multiculturalism will continue to grow in the US. However a growing political backlash against it will become more of a prominent theme as Teabaggers agitate for a return to the true values of America. Electronic arts will make major leaps and bounds as commodification continues to be a driving force in the world of art. Printed words like books and newspapers will continue to dramatically decline. Writing, drawing and playing musical instruments skills will ebb as people prefer to develop digital skill sets. Texting and Tweeting make for poor practice for extended compositions.

9. Latin America: Instability will grow in Latin America as narcodollars continue to undermine political stability in Columbia, Venezuela, Mexico and Panama. The US will increasingly become involved in the conflicts between petro and narcodollars. Mexico’s stability will be increasingly undermined by the power and corruptible influence of the drug trade. China’s influence on the continent will grow.

10. European Union: The EU will continue to manage itself for stability. It will yearn to return to its aristocratic roots and will become increasingly conservative. It will continue to have a complex relationship with the expanding Muslim community. A call to deeper nationalism will arise out of a growing influence of Islam and the inefficiencies of EC bureaucrats in Belgium. The EU will continue its union of expediency to counterbalance their distrust of Russia and their distaste for America.

11. Environmental Justice: Though awareness continues to grow concerning the need to mount and implement large scale solutions to halt the problem of global climate change; the political will and resources required to drastically alter the planets current trajectory in growth of carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels remains unaltered. Social responsible enterprises, small businesses and individuals continue to make a difference. Eco friendly small businesses, urban farming, capital formation initiatives around renewable energy businesses are hopeful signs of a market response to the pressing problem. China is investing heavily in becoming a market leader out of business savvy and environmental necessity. Until the great powers of the world can come to some collective agreement on how to limit , cap or trade carbon credits we’ll have to be content to separate the trash and recycle, reuse and reduce.

You Tube Music Video: Donald Byrd, Stepping Into Tomorrow

Risk: unfulfilled predictions will make me look bad

January 5, 2010 Posted by | business, China, commerce, corporate social responsibility, culture, ecological, government, inflation, unemployment, war | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment