Risk Rap

Rapping About a World at Risk

The Profitability of Patriotism: SME Lending

What a  difference a year makes.  A year ago the banks came crawling to Washington begging for a massive capital infusion to avoid an Armageddon of the global financial system.  They sent out an urgent SOS for a $750 billion life preserver of tax payers money to keep the banking system liquid.  Our country’s chief bursar Hank Paulson, designed a craft that would help the banks remain afloat.  Into the market maelstrom Mr. Paulson launched the USS TARP as the vehicle to save our  distressed ship of state.  The TARP would prove itself to be our arc of national economic salvation.  The success of the TARP has allowed the banks to generate profits in one of the most prolific turnarounds since Rocky Balboa’s heartbreaking split decision loss to Apollo Creed.  Some of the banks have repaid the TARP loans to the Fed.  Now as Christmas approaches and this incredible year closes bankers have visions of sugar plum fairies dancing in their heads as they dream about how they will spend this years bonus payments based on record breaking profitability.   President Obama wants the banks to show some love and return the favor by sharing more of their balance sheets by lending money to small and mid-size enterprises (SME).

Yesterday President Obama held a banking summit in Washington DC.  Mr. Obama wanted to use the occasion to shame the “fat cat bankers” to expand their lending activities to SMEs.  A few of the bigger cats were no shows.  They got fogged in at Kennedy Airport.  They called in to attend the summit by phone.    Clearly shame was not the correct motivational devise to encourage the bankers to begin lending to  SMEs.    Perhaps the President should have appealed to the bankers sense of patriotism; because now is the time that all good bankers must come to the aid of their country.  Failing that, perhaps Mr. Obama should make a business case that SME lending  is good for profits.   A vibrant SME sector is a powerful driver for wealth creation and economic recovery.    A beneficial and perhaps unintended consequence of this endeavor is  the economic security and political stability of the nation.  These  are the  worthy concerns of all true patriots and form a common ground where bankers and government can engage the issues that undermine our national security.

The President had a full agenda to cover with the bank executives.  Executive compensation, residential mortgage defaults, TARP repayment plans, bank capitalization and small business lending were some of the key topics.  Mr. Obama was intent on chastising the reprobate bankers about their penny pinching credit policies toward small businesses.  Mr. Obama conveyed to bankers that the country was still confronted with major economic problems.  Now that the banks capital  base has been stabilized with Treasury supplied funding they must get some skin into the game and belly up to the bar by making more loans to SMEs.

According to the FDIC, lending by U.S. banks fell by 2.8 percent in the third quarter.  This is the largest drop since 1984 and the fifth consecutive quarter in which banks have reduced lending.   The decline in lending is a serious  barrier to economic recovery.  Banks reduced the amount of money extended to their customers by $210.4 billion between July and September, cutting back in almost every category, from mortgage lending to funding for corporations.  The TARP was intended to spur new lending and the FDIC observed that the largest recipients of aid  were responsible for a disproportionate share of the decline in lending. FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair stated,   “We need to see banks making more loans to their business customers.”

The withdrawal of $210 billion in credit from the market is a major impediment for economic growth.  The trend to delever credit exposures is a consequence of the credit bubble and is a sign of prudent management of credit risk.  But the reduction of lending activity impedes economic activity and poses barriers to SME capital formation. If the third quarter reduction in credit withdrawal were annualized the amount of capital removed from the credit markets is about 7% of GDP.  This coupled with the declining business revenues due to recession creates a huge headwind for SMEs.  It is believed that 14% of SMEs are in distress and without expanded access to credit, defaults and  bankruptcies will continue to rise.  Massive business failures by SMEs shrinks market opportunities for banks and threatens their financial health  and long term sustainability.

The number one reason why financial institutions turn down a SME for business loans is due to risk assessment. A bank will look at a number of factors to determine how likely a business will or will not be able to return the money it has borrowed.

SME business managers must conduct a thorough risk assessment if it wishes to attract loan capital from banks.  Uncovering the risks and opportunities associated with products and markets, business functions, macroeconomic risks and understanding the critical success factors and measurements that create competitive advantage are cornerstones of effective risk management.  Bankers need assurances that managers understand the market dynamics and risk factors present in their business and how they will be managed to repay credit providers. Bankers need confidence that managers have identified the key initiatives that maintain profitability.  Bankers will gladly extend credit to SMEs that can validate that credit capital is being deployed effectively by astute managers.  Bankers will approve loans when they are confident that SME managers are making prudent capital allocation decisions that are based on a diligent risk/reward assessment.

Sum2 offers products that combine qualitative risk assessment applications with Z-Score quantitative metrics to assess the risk profile and financial health of SMEs.   The Profit|Optimizer calibrates qualitative and quantitative risk scoring  tools; placing a powerful business management tool into the hands of SME  managers.   SME managers  can  demonstrate  to bankers that their requests for credit capital is based on a thorough risk assessment and opportunity discovery exercise and will be effective stewards of loan capital.

On a macro level SME managers must vastly improve their risk management and corporate governance cultures to attract the credit capital of banks.  Using programs like the Profit|Optimizer,  SME’s can position themselves to participate in credit markets with the full faith of friendly bankers.  SME lending is a critical pillar to a sustained economic recovery and stability of our banking system.  Now is the time for all bankers  to come to the aid of their country by opening up credit channels to SMEs to restore  economic growth and the wealth of our  nation.

You Tube Music Video: Bruce Springsteen, Seeger Sessions, Pay Me My Money Down

Risk: banking, credit, SME

December 16, 2009 Posted by | banking, credit, government, Paulson, Profit|Optimizer, recession, risk management, Sum2, sustainability, TARP, Treasury | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

A Taxing Situation

irs-and-capitol2President Obama announced his intention to curb the use of offshore tax havens for multinational corporations.  The Treasury Department is looking to raise tax revenues and believes that by closing the use of offshore tax shelters it will be able to raise over $200 bn over the next ten years.  According to the New York Times,  firms like Citibank, Morgan Stanley, GE and Proctor and Gamble utilize hundreds of these type structures to shelter revenue from being taxed by the IRS.  It has effectively driven down the tax rates these companies pay and has been a key driver in maintaining corporate profitability.

This move should come as a surprise to no one.  The Treasury Department needs to find sources of tax revenues to cover the massive spending programs necessitated by the credit crisis and the global economic meltdown.  The TARP program designed to revitalize banks has  expenditures that amounted to $700 bn.  Amounts pledged for economic recovery through EESA, PPIP and ARRA will push Treasury Department expenditures targeting economic stimulus projects and programs to approximately $2 tn.  These amounts are over and above routine federal budget expenditures that is running significant deficits as well.

The planned move by the Treasury Department to rewrite the tax code may be an intentional effort to close budget deficits but it also represents a significant rise in tax audit risk.   For the past two years the IRS has been developing a practice strategy and organizational assets to more effectively enforce existing tax laws.  Private sector expertise, practices and resource has significantly out gunned the IRS’s ability to detect and develop a regulatory comprehension of the tax implications of the sophisticated multidomiciled structured transactions flowing through highly stratified and dispersed corporate structures.  The IRS is looking to level the playing field by adding to its arsenal of resources required to engage the high powered legal and accounting expertise that corporate entities employ.

The IRS has hired hundreds of new agents  and has developed risk based audit assessment guidelines for field agents when examining corporations with sophisticated structures and business models.  As such investment partnerships, global multinational corporations and companies utilizing offshore structures can expect to receive more attention from IRS examiners.

The IRS had developed Industry Focus Issues (IFI) to be used as an examination framework to guide audit engagements for sophisticated investment partnerships and  Large and Mid-size Businesses (LSMB).  The IFI for LSMB has developed three tiers of examination risk.  Each tier has comprises about 12 examination issues that will help examiners focus attention of audit resource on areas the agency considers as high probability for non-compliance.  Clearly the audit risk factors risk

To respond to this challenge, Sum2 developed an audit risk assessment program to assist CFO’s, tax managers, accountants and attorneys conduct a through IFI risk assessment.  The IRS Audit Risk Program (IARP) is a mitigation and management tool designed to temper the threat of tax audit risk.   A recent survey commissioned by Sum2 to measure industry awareness of IFI risk awareness indicated extremely low awareness of tax audit risk factors.

Sum2’s IARP helps corporate management and tax planners score exposure to each IFI risk factor.  It allows risk managers to score the severity of each exposure, mitigation capabilities, mitigation initiatives required to address risk factor, responsible parties and mitigation expenses. The IARP allows corporate boards and company management to make informed decisions on tax exposure risk, audit remediation strategies, arbitration preparation and tax controversy defense preparation.

The IARP links to all pertinent IRS documentation and information on each tax statute and IFI audit tier.  The IARP links to pertinent forms and allows for easy information retrieval and search capabilities of the vast IRS document libraries.  The IARP also has links to FASB to have instant access to latest information on accounting and valuation treatments for structured instruments.

The IARP is the newest risk application in the Profit|Optimizer product series.  The Profit|Optimizer is a enterprise risk management tool used by SME’s and industry service providers.

The IARP is available in two versions.

The IRS Audit Risk Program for investment partnerships (IARP)

Buy it on Amazon here: IARP

The Corporate Audit Risk Program (CARP)

Buy it on Amazon here: CARP

Sum2’s Audit Risk Survey results are here: IFI Audit Risk Survey

You Tube Video: Chairman of the Board, Pay to the Piper

May 7, 2009 Posted by | business, commerce, economics, EESA, FASB, government, hedge funds, IRS, off shore, Profit|Optimizer, regulatory, SME, TARP, Tax, taxation, Treasury | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Managing Pandemic Risk

pandemicThe Swine Flu outbreak carries with it the potential to severely damage the financial health of small and mid-size enterprises (SMEs). Left unmanaged pandemics can impair profits, generate losses, undermine the contribution of key employees, disrupt supply chains, halt operations and undermine an enterprises financial health that can ultimately lead to bankruptcy.

Though many consider pandemics as a force majeure risk event that lies beyond control, businesses can take steps to mitigate and manage the drastic challenges a pandemic can pose to a business. This is particularly important for businesses that find themselves in a weakened position due to the recession. Businesses that have become highly stressed due to the current business cycle are at acute risk of becoming insolvent due to the shock of this potentially catastrophic risk event. Business managers, bankers, shareholders and businesses with extended supply chains need to take steps to manage and mitigate the severe  effects of pandemic risk.

The first step is to create or update a business continuity plan. Business continuity plans need to address a range of issues that includes planning for disasters in general and planning for the unique challenges an influenza pandemic presents and integrate mitigation initiatives into critical business processes.

All businesses are unique. Addressing a pandemic risk event in your business plan will require you to conduct a risk-management assessment on all aspects of your operations, business processes and market impact to ensure continued operation and financial health of the enterprise.

Some things management must consider in its review are:

  • Assess how you work with employees, customers, contractors to minimize contagion threats
  • Determine mission critical business functions your business requires to maintain operations
  • Stress test your business operations to determine how to function with high absentee rates
  • Review inventories in case foreign or domestic suppliers and transport services are interrupted
  • Review supply chain links, determine at risk suppliers and identify backups
  • Reorganize work spaces to minimize the spread of the disease
  • Equip employees to support telecommuting
  • Develop communication strategies to update employees, customers and the media
  • Use this opportunity to expand e-commerce capabilities
  • Promote awareness of the problems associated with pandemic flu
  • Alert employees about what steps you’re taking and what they can do to limit the pandemic’s impact
  • Review sick-leave and pay policies to ensure they don’t discourage workers from staying home when they’re ill
  • Make backup plans if you need to pull people out of countries where the epidemic strikes
  • Develop a travel policy that restricts travel to areas where the virus is active
  • Stock up on masks and sanitizers, and consider staggering work hours to limit the size of gatherings

Sum2 publishes the Profit|Optimizer product series.  The Profit|Optimizer is the leading SME risk management platform that helps business managers and business stakeholders quickly assess enterprise risk factors and take considered action to mitigate and manage those risk factors. Sum2 will be releasing a pandemic risk assessment module by the close of this week.  The product will retail for $95.00 and will assist SME’s to assess, mitigate and manage the threats posed to their business by pandemics and other social disasters.

More information can be found on our website www.sum2.com.

Sum2 helps businesses assess risk and realize opportunities.

April 30, 2009 Posted by | business continuity, disaster planning, geography, operations, Profit|Optimizer, regulatory, risk management, Sum2, supply chain | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Audit Risk Survey for Fund Managers: Final Results

tax-return1Sum2 is please to report the final results of the IRS Audit Risk Survey for Fund Managers. Sum2 has commissioned the survey to determine financial services industry awareness and readiness for IRS audit risk factors. The survey sought to determine industry awareness and readiness to address IRS Industry Focus Issue (IFI) risk exposures for hedge funds, private equity firms, RIAs, CTAs and corporations using offshore structures.

Survey Background

Due to the pressing revenue requirements of the United States Treasury and the need to raise funds by recognizing new sources of taxable revenue; hedge funds, private equity firms, CTA’s and other corporations that utilize elaborate corporate structures, engage in sophisticated transactions and recognize uncommon forms of revenue, losses and tax credits will increasingly fall under the considered focus of the IRS.

Since 2007 the IRS began to transition its organizational posture from a benign customer service resource to a more activist posture that is intent on assuring compliance and enforcement of US tax laws. Specifically the IRS has invested in its Large and Mid-Size Business Division (LMSB) to enhance its expertise and resources to more effectively address the tax audit challenges that the complexity and sophistication of investment management complexes present. The IRS has developed its industry issue competencies within its LMSB Division. It has developed a focused organizational structure that assigns issue ownership to specific executives and issue management teams. This vertical expertise is further enhanced with issue specialists to deepen the agencies competency capital and industry issue coordinators that lends administrative and agency management efficiency by ranking and coordinating responses to specific industry issues. IRS is building up its portfolio of skills and industry expertise to address the sophisticated agility of hedge fund industry tax professionals.

To better focus the resources of the agency the IRS has developed a Three Tiered Industry Focus Issues (IFI). Tier I issues are deemed most worthy of indepth examinations and any fund management company with exposure in these areas need to exercise more diligence in its preparation and response. Tier I issues are ranked by the IRS as being of high strategic importance when opening an audit examination. This is followed by Tier II and Tier III focus issues that include examination issues ranked according to strategic tax compliance risk and significance to the market vertical. Clearly the IRS is investing significant organizational and human capital to address complex tax issues of the industry. The IRS is making a significant institutional investment to discover potentially lucrative tax revenue streams that will help to address the massive budget deficits of the federal government.

Survey Results

The survey was open to fund management executives, corporate treasury, tax managers and industry service providers. CPAs, tax attorneys, compliance professions, administrators, custodians and prime brokers were also invited to participate in the study. The survey was viewed by 478 people. The survey was completed by 43% of participants who began the survey.

Geographical breakdown of the survey participants were as follows:

  • North America 73%
  • Europe 21%
  • Asia 6%

The survey asked nine questions. The questions asked participants about their awareness of IFI that pertain to their fund or fund management practice and potential mitigation actions that they are considering to address audit risk.

The survey posed the following questions:

  • Are you aware of the Industry Focus Issues (IFI) the IRS has developed to determine a fund managers audit risk profile?
  • Are you aware of the organizational changes the IRS has made and how it may effect your firms response during an audit?
  • Are you aware of the Three IFI Tiers the IRS has developed to assess a funds audit risk profile?
  • Are you aware of how the Three IFI Tiers may affect your audit risk exposures?
  • Have you conducted any special planning sessions with internal staff to prepare for IFI audit risk exposures?
  • Has your outside auditor or tax attorney notified you of the potential impact of IFI risk?
  • Have you held any special planning meetings with your outside auditors or tax attorneys to mitigate IFI risk?
  • Have you had meetings with your prime brokers, custodians and administrators to address the information requirements of IFI risk?
  • Have you or do you plan to communicate the potential impact of IFI risk exposures to fund partners and investors?

Survey highlights included:

  • 21% of survey participants were aware of IFI
  • 7% of survey respondents planned to implement specific strategies to address IFI audit risk
  • 6% of survey respondents have received action alerts from CPA’s and tax attorney’s concerning IFI audit risk
  • 26% of survey respondents plan to alert fund investors to potential impact of IFI audit risk

Recommendations

Sum2 believes that survey results indicate extremely low awareness of IFI audit risk. Considering the recent trauma of the credit crisis, sensational fraud events and the devastating impact of last years adverse market conditions; fund managers and industry service providers must remain vigilant to mitigate this emerging risk factor. These market developments and the prevailing political climate surrounding the financial services sector will bring the industry under heightened scrutiny by tax authorities and regulatory agencies. Unregulated hedge funds may be immune from some regulatory issues but added compliance and disclosure discipline may be imposed by significant counter-parties, such as prime brokers and custodians that are regulated institutions.

Market and regulatory developments has clearly raised the tax compliance and regulatory risk factors for hedge funds and other fund managers. Issues concerning FAS 157 security valuation, partnership domiciles and structure, fund liquidation and restructuring and complex transactions has increased the audit risk profile for the industry. Significant tax liabilities, penalties and expenses can be incurred if this risk factor is not met with well a well considered risk management program.

In response to this industry threat, Sum2 has developed an IRS Audit Risk Program (IARP) that prepares fund management CFO’s and industry service tax professionals to ascertain, manage and mitigate its IRS risk exposures within the Three IFI Tiers.

The IARP provides a threat scoring methodology to ascertain risk levels for each IFI risk factor and aggregates overall IFI Tier exposures. The IARP uses a scoring methodology to determine level of preparedness to meet each of the 36 audit risk factors. The IARP helps managers to outline mitigation actions required to address audit risk factors and determine potential exposures of each risk. The IARP calculates expenses associated with mitigation initiatives and assigns mitigation responsibility to staff members or service providers.

The IARP links users to issue specific IRS resources, forms and documentation that will help you determine an IFI risk relevancy and the resources you need to address it. The IARP will prove a valuable resource to help you manage your response to a tax audit. It will also prove itself to be a critical tool to coordinate and align internal and external resources to expeditiously manage and close protracted audit engagements, arbitration or litigation events.

The IARP product is a vertical application of Sum2’s Profit|Optimizer product series. The Profit|Optimizer is a C Level risk management tool that assists managers to uncover and mitigate business threats and spot opportunities to maintain profitability and sustainable growth.

The IARP product is available for down load on Amazon.com.

The product can also be purchased with a PayPal account: Sum2 e-commerce

Sum2 wishes to thank all who anonymously took part in the survey.

If you have any questions or would like to order an IARP please contact Sum2, LLC at 973.287.7535 or by email at customer.service@sum2.com.

April 20, 2009 Posted by | FASB, hedge funds, IRS, legal, off shore, private equity, Profit|Optimizer, regulatory, reputational risk, risk management, Sum2, Tax, taxation | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

A Borrower and Lender Be: SME Lending

shylock1

Bankers are catching some major heat. Senators are screaming at the money lenders in an effort to have them explain what the banks did with the $350bn they gave them in the first round of TARP funding. Now that the second $350bn tranche of TARP funds is about to be dispersed, the politicians want assurances that a good portion of the money will find its way into the economy in loans to small & mid-sized enterprises (SME). All believe that this is critical to halt the specter of the deepening recession.

If it wasn’t so serious it would be funny. Banks are getting yelled at by the politicians for not lending. Angry constituents are beating up the politicians for giving the banks the bailout money in the the first place. They complain that the Treasury Department is giving banks taxpayer funds at a 1% interest rate that banks in turn lend back to taxpayers at interests rates that are considerably higher. To close this circle of pain, consumers are getting nasty calls from their bankers and debt collection agencies, threatening them with punitive actions if they don’t pay their mortgages and outstanding credit card balances. Everyone is a debtor in this comedic cycle of pain.

Now that banks are flush with cash from the second round of TARP funding they must start lending and SMEs need to start borrowing. Its that simple. What is not simple is breaking the stalemate of confidence that exists between lenders and borrowers. Risk aversion is extremely high. Banks are very concerned about adding credit risk exposures to commercial loan portfolios. A recession creates enormous market challenges for SMEs. Bankers need to develop an enhanced sense of confidence in the management and business prospects of an SME before it will extend credit.

Both lenders and borrowers can come together in a shared understanding if they are willing to engage in the deeper work that is required by the new business realities. SME managers must be aware of the business and risk management practices that bankers generally look for when assessing credit worthiness. SMEs must be able to demonstrate to lenders that they are committed to sound risk management and corporate governance practices. SMEs must also be prepared to meet transparency requirements of banks with honest and timely disclosures.

Bankers actively seek SMEs that are run by focused and capable managers. SMEs that can demonstrate effective risk management skills and an awareness of the challenges and opportunities present in their market will find that bankers are more then willing to extend new credit facilities to them. Bankers will have greater confidence in these SMEs if they understand and believe in the SME business model. Bankers lend with confidence when they understand how businesses can generate sufficient cash flow and profits to pay back loans. Bankers need confidence that credit risk is being mitigated. SMEs enhance banker confidence that they are a good credit risk by demonstrating a strong risk management and corporate governance culture.

Fortunately there is tool that bankers and SMEs use to build mutual understanding and trust. The Profit|Optimizer helps to generate the confidence needed to help banks lend capital and SME to effectively deploy it.

Get the Profit|Optimizer and confidently be a lender, be a borrower and break the cycle of pain to get our economy going again.

You Tube Video: Liza Minnelli, Joel Grey Cabaret, Money

Risk: credit, market, small business

February 18, 2009 Posted by | banking, credit crisis, recession, SME | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Credit Redi Blog

Credit Redi is a company sponsored blog of Sum2. The purpose of Credit Redi is to help small and mid-size enterprises (SMEs) protect and improve their ability to access credit and equity financing from banks , shareholders and other funding sources.

Sum2 is dedicated to the commercial application of sound practices. Our sound practices program and products address:

  • corporate governance
  • risk management
  • stakeholder communications
  • regulatory compliance

Sum2 believes that all enterprises enhance their equity value by implementing a sound practice program. Sound practices are principal value drivers for corporate and product brands. Practitioners are awarded with healthy profit margins, attraction of high end clientele, enterprise risk mitigation and premium equity valuation.

Sum2 looks forward to helping you address the pressing challenges of the current business cycle.

You Tube Video: Herb Alpert and the Tijuana Brass, Work Song

Risk: abundance

January 28, 2009 Posted by | banking, credit, risk management, SME, Sum2 | , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Sum2 to Exhibit at Everything Jersey Conference

Sum2 will be exhibiting at the Everything Jersey Conference & Expo.

Sum2 will showcase the Profit|Optimizer product series. Current economic conditions are creating an unprecedented demand for this timely small business risk management tool. The Profit|Optimizer can be ordered and downloaded through our e-commerce site.

Sum2 will also demonstrate its award winning AML product PACO™. PACO and related AML compliance products can be ordered through our e-commerce site.

We hope to see you at the show.

Visit www.sum2.com today.Music Video:  Jerry Lewis  The Typewriter Song

Risk: missing the show.



October 25, 2008 Posted by | commerce, soundtrack, Sum2 | , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Buffalo Bob vs. Zbigniew Brzezinski

Today I woke late and loitered in bed a bit. I was flipping back and forth between Zbigniew Brzezinski on Morning Joe and Buffalo Bob on Good Morning America. Under normal circumstances I would not have flinched from my attention to ZB. He was-as usual- great this morning and spot on concerning the precarious world situation. But I caught wind that GMA was airing a tease for this evening’s 20/20 show. They were interviewing a Millennialist Buffalo Bob from the House of Yahweh Compound in Texas. This prophet was prophesying that nuclear war will break out in 6 days! Now that’s a tease. A must see. Sorry ZB.

After this great news and a quick review of this morning’s local paper, I wanted to rush to my computer to blog on a few news items. But pressing matters of commerce took precedence and I would have to pass on my daily pontification and as the day progressed the economic and political news seemed to deteriorate as the heat and humidity began to rise to uncomfortable levels.

The Record (the paper of record for Northern New Jersey) led with a headline about Continental Airlines rising financial difficulties and it’s need to cutback on flights, fleet and jobs. The slow economy and rising fuel costs are blamed. This is hardly a shock to anyone who follows business news. Ever since I can remember the airline industry has been in perpetual difficulty. It is really incomprehensible to me how a business straining its capacity to accommodate customers has never been able to create an industry that is consistently profitable. Not even close. What’s even more incredible is why investors put their capital at risk in a business that has proven its inability to make a profit. That includes legendary capitalists like Carl Icahn and Julian Robertson. The later the iconic founder of the Tiger Management hedge fund had to close the doors to this storied fund due to his oversize position in US AIR.

Does anyone remember, Braniff, Eastern Airlines, TWA and PAN AM? Great bands all now happily camped at the top of the corporate scrapheap.

Can anyone say sustainability? The airline industry as now constituted is a non-sustainable industry. As its contribution to the global carbon footprint needs to be accounted for as a cost of doing business and remediation funded through carbon credits or cap and trade futures it will become more so.

The next story from this morning’s paper to catch our attention was the reminder that the State of New Jersey’s unfunded pension liability is approximately $25,000,000,000. Though some might consider the sum a rounding error in the federal budget deficit or a small accounting oversight in a procurement over billing for Mr. Bush’s War, the deficit will need to be addressed through some hard measures and demonstrates the absolute fallacy of the wonderful effects of the pandering Republican mantra of tax cuts. Baloney! The bill comes due sooner or later and I suspect that I’ll be getting a dunning message very soon.

Maybe we can sell the NJ Turnpike, Rt. 80 and the Garden State Parkway to a group of Chinese Private Equity Funds. And while we’re at it, let’s throw in our public school system, township libraries and local police forces. I would feel very comfortable having the Red Army police the streets of my community and enforce the law for all ez pass violators.

Next story in today’s Record led the Local section. The Essex Street Bridge that spans Rt. 17 has been closed for some time. It has choked off access to local businesses and they may be forced to close. This is a story about eminent domain, crumbling infrastructure and the pressing need for business people to be mindful of facilities risk and to practice risk management to mitigate the negative effects of these events. Fortunately our firm offers small business managers the Profit | Optimizer which helps to anticipate and plan mitigation initiatives if these events occur.

The Labor Department employment report was released and indicated that unemployment was now 5.25%; the highest in many years. This slowdown is speeding up and I don’t perceive any sector leadership emerging that can begin to lead us out of this recession. This one could get ugly.

I had an appointment with a small manufacturer this afternoon. As I was returning from the call I learned that the DOW sunk 400 points as crude oil futures went limit up at $11 on the remarks of an Israeli transportation minister who hinted that an air strike on Iranian nuclear facilities by the Israeli Defense Forces may be unavoidable. I shook my head.

Maybe Buffalo Bob knew something that Zbigniew did not. Or maybe the GMA marketing department is really a kick ass organization.

Maybe we are on the eve of destruction?

Do you think we’ll make it to the year 2525?

Risk: airlines, facilities, market, nuclear war, religion, serenity, pension funds, labor

June 6, 2008 Posted by | Bush, commodities, community, faith, nuclear, pop, Sum2, sustainability, war | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Macroeconomic Risk Impacts SMEs

Small and mid-size enterprises (SME) are acutely susceptible to the negative impact of macroeconomic risk factors. Macroeconomic risk factors such as inflation, interest rates, market cycles, market regionalism, credit and labor availability, and fuel costs conspire to drain profitability and financial health of small and mid-size businesses.

Though issues of scale are principal culprits that enhance the negative impact of macroeconomic factors on SME’s, other factors such as risk concentration in product markets, clients, and supply chain; silo business functions and lack of specialized treasury functions to hedge risk and maximize capital allocation returns also contribute to enhanced macroeconomic risk profile of SME’s.

To help SME’s to better understand and manage the impact of macroeconomic risk factors on their business; Sum2 is providing the Profit|Optimizer Macroeconomic Test to small business owners and managers at no charge. The test is a module from the Profit|Optimizer product which provides a thorough risk assessment and opportunity discovery review of a small business enterprise.

The test can be accessed by clicking this Profit|Optimizer hyper link.

We hope to be of service. Take the test.

You Tube Video: Charley Brown

Risk: SME, Macroeconomic Risk, Inflation, CRG, Risk Management

May 31, 2008 Posted by | risk management, SME, Sum2 | , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Corporate Credit Markets Redux

This morning I attended a Standard and Poors presentation on Emerging Issues in Fixed Income Market. It was extremely well done. The presenters offered some interesting data and insights concerning the health of the corporate bond markets.

Key Takeaways:

  • Tighter lending conditions spell heightened risk of defaults
  • Two-Thirds (66%) of Non-Financial US Corporate Bonds are Speculative Grade
  • A spike in lower grade new issues from 2004 through 2007 will feed default supply
  • Consumer Discretionary Market Sector is weakest (media/entertainment, consumer products, retail)
  • Corporate defaults will escalate in late 2008 through 2009 and will trough in 2010.
  • This year’s baseline default rate forecast is 4.7%, with a high of 8.5% and a low of 3.7%

What interests me is the degree to which these prognostications may reflect similar default and business distress rates in the small and mid-size business market (SMB). My initial guess is that SMB’s will not experience a similar level of default. I don’t believe that SMB’s are as leveraged as public companies. But credit risk remains a pressing problem for SMB’s and the dramatic curtailment of bank lending heightens default risk.

SMB’s that sell to public companies should take time to study the financial condition of these corporate accounts. Defaults are painful for investors and creditors. Having a large unmet receivable exposure can seriously damage the financial health of an SMB.

I do believe that the forecast for the consumer discretionary sector is very relevant for SMB’s. SMB’s in this sector will not escape the pressures of the economic downturn. High fuel costs, consumer spending capability and inflation will dramatically hurt this sector and may result in increased defaults as the economic slowdown takes hold.

We highly recommend that SMB’s purchase the Profit|Optimizer to mitigate the effects of these risks.

You Tube Video: Louis Jordan, Let the Good Times Roll

Risk: Credit Risk, Corporate Defaults, Consumer Product Market, Small Mid-Size Businesses

May 2, 2008 Posted by | banking, blues, credit crisis, recession, SME, Sum2 | , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment