Risk Rap

Rapping About a World at Risk

Prognostications and Expostulations

We’re going out on a limb with this one or given thats its winter we’ll say we’re walking on thin ice. We’ll gaze into the crystal ball and pontificate on eleven subject areas for 2010. With some we hope we will be wrong. With some we hope we will be right.

1. Stock Market: Buoyed by well managed earnings by the large multinational companies in the DOW, principally as a result of cost reduction initiatives and exposure to global markets the Index will finish up 6% and close at 11, 011 on the last trading day of 2010. Given an inflation rate of 4% investors will realize a 2% gain on equity investments in DOW constituents. S&P 500 and NASDAQ will be flat gaining 2% for the year.

2. Iraq War: The war in Iraq will continue to wind down. America will scale down its military presence in the country. Troop levels in the country will approximate 85,000 by the close of 2010. Though direct American military involvement in conflicts will decline, Iraq will experience civil unrest as Kurd nationalists, Shiite and Sunni Muslims seek to protect their political and economic interests.

3. Afghanistan War: The escalation of America’s military presence in Afghanistan will move the theater of war further into Pakistan. The Taliban will be satisfied to harass US forces by engaging in a guerrilla war. Taliban and Al-Qaeda supporters will use the opportunity to increase the level of urban terrorist attacks in the large cities of Pakistan. Al-Qaeda confederates will seek to reestablish base of support in Somalia, Yemen and ties will begin to emerge in Latin American narco-terror states.

4. Iran: The political situation in Iran will continue to deteriorate. This is a positive development for regional stability because it will force the ruling regime to cede its nuclear program development initiatives. Iran will not be able to capitalize on the US draw down in Iraq. It will become increasingly isolated as Hezbollah and Hamas pursue actions that are less confrontational to Israel in Palestine and Lebanon. The ruling Caliphate position will weaken due to internal political dissent and external economic pressures.

5. China: It will be a year of ultra-nationalism in China. Its stimulus program that is targeted to internal development will sustain a GDP growth rate of 8%. China will use this opportunity to strengthen the ideological support of its citizens to fall in line with the national development initiative. Globally China will continue to expand its interests in Africa and will cull deeper relationships with its Pacific Rim club member Latin America. China will continue to use US preoccupation with its wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and skirmishes in Yemen and Somalia as an opportunity to expand its global presence with a message of peace and cooperation.

5. US Mid Term Elections: Republicans will gain a number of seats in Congress. The continued soft economic conditions, state and local government fiscal crisis, war weariness and cut back in services and rising expenses will make this a bad year for incumbents and the party in power, namely the democrats. Sarah Palin will play a large role in supporting anti-government candidates drooling over the prospect of winning a seat in government.

6. Recession: Though the recession may be officially over, high unemployment, home foreclosures and spiking interest rates will hamper a robust recovery. The end of large government stimulus programs and the continued decrease in real estate values also present strong headwinds to recovery. We predict a GDP growth rate of 2% for the US economy. Outsourcing will abate and a move to reintroduce SME manufacturing will commence.

7. Technology: The new green technology will focus on the development of nuclear power plants.  The clash of the titan’s between Google’s Droid and Apple’s I Phone will dominate tech news during the year.  Lesser skirmishes  between Smart Phones makers or the war of the clones will continue to explode altering the home PC market and continue to change the market paradigm for old line firms like DELL, Microsoft and HP.   SaaS or cloud computing will gain on the back of lean business process initiatives and smart phone application development and processing infrastructure will encourage cottage industries fueling the cloud and making for some new millionaires. The tension between the creators of content and search and delivery will begin to tilt back toward the content providers. Litigation involving social networking sites will be filed to create safeguards against its use as a tool to control and manipulate behaviors thus threatening civil liberties and privacy rights.

8. Culture: The Googlization of civilization will allow individuals to embrace more corporatism as a pillar to add efficiency and order to their lives. Multiculturalism will continue to grow in the US. However a growing political backlash against it will become more of a prominent theme as Teabaggers agitate for a return to the true values of America. Electronic arts will make major leaps and bounds as commodification continues to be a driving force in the world of art. Printed words like books and newspapers will continue to dramatically decline. Writing, drawing and playing musical instruments skills will ebb as people prefer to develop digital skill sets. Texting and Tweeting make for poor practice for extended compositions.

9. Latin America: Instability will grow in Latin America as narcodollars continue to undermine political stability in Columbia, Venezuela, Mexico and Panama. The US will increasingly become involved in the conflicts between petro and narcodollars. Mexico’s stability will be increasingly undermined by the power and corruptible influence of the drug trade. China’s influence on the continent will grow.

10. European Union: The EU will continue to manage itself for stability. It will yearn to return to its aristocratic roots and will become increasingly conservative. It will continue to have a complex relationship with the expanding Muslim community. A call to deeper nationalism will arise out of a growing influence of Islam and the inefficiencies of EC bureaucrats in Belgium. The EU will continue its union of expediency to counterbalance their distrust of Russia and their distaste for America.

11. Environmental Justice: Though awareness continues to grow concerning the need to mount and implement large scale solutions to halt the problem of global climate change; the political will and resources required to drastically alter the planets current trajectory in growth of carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels remains unaltered. Social responsible enterprises, small businesses and individuals continue to make a difference. Eco friendly small businesses, urban farming, capital formation initiatives around renewable energy businesses are hopeful signs of a market response to the pressing problem. China is investing heavily in becoming a market leader out of business savvy and environmental necessity. Until the great powers of the world can come to some collective agreement on how to limit , cap or trade carbon credits we’ll have to be content to separate the trash and recycle, reuse and reduce.

You Tube Music Video: Donald Byrd, Stepping Into Tomorrow

Risk: unfulfilled predictions will make me look bad

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January 5, 2010 Posted by | business, China, commerce, corporate social responsibility, culture, ecological, government, inflation, unemployment, war | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

SME Development Bank

Over the Labor Day Weekend Sum2 announced The Hamilton Plan. The Hamilton Plan is a ten point program to foster the development of manufacturing in the United States by tapping the entrepreneurial energy of small and mid-size enterprises (SME). The plan’s 10 points address sustainable business models, GRC best practices, capital formation initiatives, SME banking, labor union stakeholder empowerment, association syndication, cooperative formation, support for public education and cooperative learning.

This is an introduction to The Hamilton Plan, why it’s needed and the call for the creation of an SME Development Bank (SDB) to facilitate capital formation to achieve the goals of the program.

The Hamilton Plan, named after the first Secretary of the Treasury of the United States, proposes a ten point program to develop small and mid-size enterprise (SME) manufactures. The Hamilton Plan invites business owners and executives, industry associations, chambers of commerce, banks, capital market participants, labor unions, academia, non-profit organizations and governmental institutions to join forces in a concerted effort to support the reestablishment of the manufacturing infrastructure of the United States.

The vital national interest can be served by institutions representing business, labor, local communities and government to join together to foster optimal conditions to incubate and develop SME manufactures. SMEs are a natural strength of the US economy. SME represent largest most vibrant sector of the economy and by combining the entrepreneurial drive and creative energy of SME’s with the pressing need for innovative manufactures; America can reestablish its ascendancy as a preeminent power in the global economy. The Hamilton Plan is designed to provide incentives and encourage the formation of support clusters to develop SME manufacturing.

The Hamilton Plan:

1. Adoption of World Business Council Standards for Sustainable Business

2. Establish Incubators for Targeted Growth Industries

3. Adopt Sound Governance, Risk, Compliance Practices (GRC)

4. Formation of SME Development Bank / Capital Formation Initiatives

5. Partnership Lyceums for Government / Business / Academic Institutions

6. Labor Unions as Preferred Stakeholder / Association Syndication Unions

7. Establish Cooperatives for Technology / Licensing / Commodities / Energy

8. Superfund for Progressive Tax Code / Universal Health & Benefits

Infrastructure Investment / Brownfield Remediation and Reclamation

9. Expand Public Education Funding & SME COOP Program

10. Support Millennium Development Goals

Capital Formation Key to Success

The Hamilton Plan in its entirety is designed to respond to the compounding economic and political crisis that is confronting the United States. The credit crisis, energy dependence, industrial stasis, trade deficits, geo-political instabilities, aging infrastructure and climate change are the result of long term systemic problems that government and industry has failed to address effectively. The Hamilton Plan advocates the adoption of the program to squarely address these pressing issues with the full understanding that it will require the concerted cooperation of all stakeholders to assure the continued development, security and prosperity of America.

The Hamilton Plan requires concerted focus of investment capital to fund development and to make sure that assets are allocated to channels that will assure optimal returns and that equity participation of stakeholders is protected and rewarded. The establishment of an SME Development Bank (SDB) is a structured investment vehicle and corporate institution that will focus, manage and administer capital formation initiatives to incubate and develop SME manufactures.

At its core, The Hamilton Plan seeks to preserve the free flow of investment capital to finance national economic development and empower SME manufactures. The Hamilton Plan is not a substitution nor in any way seeks to supplant the American free market system. The Plan is designed to unleash, pool and focus investment capital. The Plan leverages regulatory capital, compliance and governance. The Plan seeks to achieve strategic economic goals, build wealth and prosperity in US and realize broader goals and objectives to assure sustainable economic growth, nurture innovation,  ecological balance and global competitiveness.

SME Development Bank (SDB)

The SDB would be chartered to assure that capital is deployed to meet appropriate program projects and assure effective stewardship of shareholders capital. The SDB would be the repository for economic and regulatory capital. It would maintain capital adequacy ratios in conformance with Basel II directives. The SDB would serve as a fiduciary to distribute capital through local community banking channels. SDB governance would assure that program objectives, ownership equity, credit requirements, capital allocations, shareholder rights and income distributions are made to SDB shareholders.

Government funding of the SDB would consist of share purchases financed by capital from a national development Superfund. The Superfund would receive tax receipts from a progressive national tax program, budget allocations, licensing and royalty receipts, dividend reinvestment’s and capital gains proceeds from the sale of assets.

Shareholders in the SDB would be community banks, institutional fund managers, state/local/federal government, private equity firms, business owners, company management, associations, labor unions, employees, academic institutions, non-profits organizations. Different forms of capital would be recognized and used to purchase shares in the SDB. For example, local governments can purchase shares in the SDB with tax credits or land grants or infrastructure improvement projects; labor can purchase shares with sweat equity, academic institutions with intellectual capital etc.

Securitization of SDB shares can be created to trade on public exchanges. Any secondary market listings would occur after underlying assets have been properly seasoned. Shares in the SDB would offer terms of extended time frames for investment lockup and share redemption.

Community Bankers as Risk Managers and Distribution Conduits

Community Banks have a critical role as an SDB equity partner. The community bank is the primary channel by which equity and credit capital is provided to the SME. They are front line risk managers and advisors for portfolio companies. Community banks are astute relationship managers. Community banks understand local market conditions and can link assets and service providers to build support clusters and expanded value chains for SMEs. Community bankers will help SMEs focus on capital allocation strategies and support efforts in encourage growth and profitability.

They will provide help in the following areas:

Corporate Governance
Risk Management
Business Promotion, Acceleration and Development
Corporate Advisory Services
Information Services
Performance Evaluation Services

Community banks will be offered regulatory capital relief through its equity participation in the SDB. Community banks will form a joint back office (JBO) to address regulatory capital requirements for its participation and share ownership in the SDB. Community banks must continue fulfill capital requirements for retail banking and other lines of business in accordance with regulatory requirements of its governing agency. State regulatory agencies relating to SME banking regulation, enforcement and inspection would conform to a unified national banking regulatory agency.

Community banks will share in the equity appreciation of the SME and any distributions, dividends or corporate actions the Board of the SDB effects. The differentiation of credit and equity capital participation will be accounted for at the SDB level. Administrators for hedge funds and other Alternative Investment Vehicles have developed sophisticated partnership and shareholding accounting capabilities that can address questions of share class ownership, tranche construction and attributes, asset valuation, distributions and returns.

The community bank in working in conjunction with the SDB will help SME’s effectively manage risk, improve stakeholder communication, implement effective corporate governance that create sustainable business practices to assure long term profitability and growth.

The Hamilton Plan lays the foundation for SMEs to seize market opportunities. SMEs in partnership with community bankers must assess products and markets, business functions and critical success factors. Sufficiently capitalized by the SDB, the SME and local bankers will execute an action plan to support the corporate mission in line with the larger goals of The Hamilton Plan to build wealth for its shareholders and assure the future prosperity of America.

Song: Average White Band: Work To Do

Risk: manufacturing, small and mid-size business, global competitiveness, middle class, national prosperity

September 3, 2008 Posted by | Hamilton Plan, hedge funds, manufacturing, Millennium Development Goals, pop, recession, SME | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments